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Moore's law, originally stated in 1965, states that processors will double in speed and halve in price roughly every two years. This has been borne out, more or less, over the last 49 years, and is likely to continue for the next 7 years at least.

With this as our starting point, I'd like to make some further conjectures, however.

1. All systems that must compete directly with advanced processors and telecommunications technology will, in a relative sense, seem twice as expensive, and twice as slow, and will increasingly seem so every two years as well. This is my "Dark Side of Murphy's Law". The economics of communications and processing become increasingly skewed by these phenomena, rendering many more conservative processes and institutions increasingly ineffective and powerless to control the more efficient processes around them.

2. As the ability to double processing power presumably comes to an end at roughly the five nanometer scale, the interpretation of Moore's Law must shift away from the first half of the conjecture (doubling processing power and speed) and more towards the second half (halving the cost of processors). Does this mean that the cost of processing power will continue to drop at its present rate, or that it will drop to 25% of its previous cost every two years? The consequences of the two scenarios may be vastly different.

Media in category "Category:Moore's Law"

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